We try to capture the unknowables,” said Hancock. “We examine consumer wants and whether the new models deliver. The approach is especially helpful for all-new models and nameplates that didn’t even exist a year ago. The art side of the equation involves more subjective qualities, such as vehicle design and innovations that CBB editors take the time to assess by “touch and feel,” said Hancock. To produce solid forecasts, Hancock said the process is 80 per cent data-driven and 20 per cent “art.” Typical data collected by CBB includes wholesale auction prices, manufacturers’ info, auto loan data, as well as macroeconomic indicators such as consumer confidence, exchange rates, and forecasts for fuel prices, inflation and interest rates. “We’ve got our leading analytics tools and we know the Canadian auto market best, so it was time to take the next logical step by establishing our first-ever Canadian Black Book Residual Value Awards,” said James Hancock, CBB’s director of OEM strategy and analytics. Having perfected its data collection to find which automotive brands preserve their value best - last year it was Honda for cars, GMC for trucks and Porsche for luxury models - CBB is now trying its hand at forecasting residual values four years into the future. Last fall’s data revealed 2017-model-year vehicles were fetching an average 64 per cent of their original price at auction, up substantially from 52 per cent just two years ago - thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic that sparked supply-chain turmoil, which in turn led to unprecedented demand for used vehicles as new-vehicle inventories dried up. The firm tracks the valuations of four-year-old used vehicles at wholesale auctions in Canada and compares those values to their original sticker price. To help steer car shoppers towards the brands and models that hold their value well, CBB established its annual Best Retained Value Awards 15 years ago.
Determining which models maintain their value well is the specialty of Canadian Black Book (CBB), the country’s go-to automotive data and analytics provider for the past 60 years.
Many consumers don’t know that the single largest new-car expense is depreciation, the invisible menace that erodes the value of their vehicle. The pain comes into focus when shoppers visit a dealer to buy a new car and learn just how little their present vehicle is worth. Vehicle depreciation has become part of her decision process knowing that cars that lose their value quickly can impact the household budget. “Price is always a factor, but the total cost of ownership over the long term is paramount.” “I’m looking for a vehicle that’s more capable in winter since I had trouble getting to work this past season,” Eaton said, adding that she has to watch the bottom line. Romina Eaton’s 2015 Volkswagen Jetta runs strong, but after she makes her final car payment this year, she won’t have any regrets about trading it in for a new model.
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